“It’s a city built of pieces of cities. A corner from one place, another from some place else. So, you don’t really know where you are…its like every time you travel, you’ll be lost”
- Patrick Tatopoulus, Dark City
In the movie Dark City, aliens rebuild the city in which the residents live every night. Every morning the residents awake to a new city, vaguely confused and beginning their days trying to keep up, as if they need to catch up to something but not sure what it is. This could very well describe life in Shanghai, Shenzhen or any one of China’s surging mega-tropolises. If you live in one of these frontier cities you will agree that seemingly overnight entire neighborhoods are built, reshaped or torn down.
For better or worse, we are now in a society where the rate of change is outpacing our ability to learn (fast), domestic and global markets are complex - interdependent in hidden and surprising ways (blind), and the competition for diminishing human and natural resources is intense (dense).
The sheer scale and speed of this reshaping of the emerging economies is warping the rules for business and society in unexpected ways. The tidal shift in global redistribution of wealth from West to East has created new market conditions that move so quickly that businesses and consumers are now spending more time catching up than thoughtfully moving ahead.
The crazy part is that it’s going to get even faster, blinder and denser.
The development of fast, blind and dense markets is the latest ripple extending out from the industrial revolution and extended by the internet revolution and was brought on principally by an increasing population in resource scarce regions. Couple these regions with new wealth from commodities and you have a new wild west shaping the consumers and cultures of the future.
Paying to compete for attention.
The consumers of tomorrow will look fundamentally different than those of today. They will be demanding products and services that are globally relevant, yet locally meaningful. They will have far more choice than their parents did - from what they consume to what they do for a living to how they express themselves.
If we continue on our current path of abundance, how will our societies grow in the super-prosperous conditions brought on by the emerging economies?
Universe 25. From Animal Populations: Nature’s Checks and Balances, 1983
One answer may be provided by Universe 25, a city of mice built by John B. Calhoun, a researcher at the National Institute of Mental Health in Rockville, Maryland. Universe 25 was designed to be a Utopia - unlimited food and water in a 10 by 14 foot enclosure. He placed 15 mice into this city and within a year and a half there were over 2000 mice all competing not for the plentiful air, water and food but for space, attention and affection.
In short, this Utopian paradise turned into mice hell. When the mouse population outstripped the available space, the mice fell into what Calhoun called the “behavioral sink” where "explosive violence, hypersexual activity followed by asexuality, and self-destruction" became the inevitable outcome.
Mouse utopia/dystopia, as designed by John B. Calhoun. From Animal Populations: Nature’s Checks and Balances, 1983.
For a full account of Calhoun’s work read the excellent article in Cabinet by Will Wiles here: http://www.cabinetmagazine.org/issues/42/wiles.php
There is a silver lining though, if you could call it that. Maybe more of a glimmer of hope. Calhoun found that creativity and social connectedness emerged spontaneously in the mice and they were able to stave off the collapse of their mouse society. He came to believe that creativity and design can solve our future problems.
The creativity needed in this future doesn’t look like what you think. It isn’t rainbows of genius shooting forth from the pens of scholars in ivory towers. The New creativity is dirty, messy and scrappy trial and error that is crowdsourced and networked across society - enabling collaboration and openness. Leadership will become a recognized skill necessary to rally the creative potential of society and focus it on a purpose (people like Oppenheimer and JFK come to mind). Continual evolution of ideas rather than incubated perfection is the norm in Fast, Blind and Dense markets.
The never-ending cranes of Asia.
Asia contains the fastest, blindest and densest markets in the world. As competitive pressures increase it is up to us to become more creative and trusting to literally keep our sanity in this new world. And in Asia we will be able to experience the future first, and also solve its problems first. I believe we are more than capable of avoiding the fate of Universe 25 and Dark City by using our collective imagination and optimism; and in doing so, attain a new global prosperity.